It is now a question of how and where, not if, solar becomes a dominant force in energy markets.
The technology is improving so fast that it has attracted the attention of some really big players lately. Michael Parker and Flora Chang, at Sanford Bernstein an independent investment research and brokerage firm, say we are entering a new order of “global energy deflation” that must ineluctably erode the viability of oil, gas and the fossil fuel over time. In the 1980s solar development was stopped in its tracks by the slump in oil prices. By now it has surely crossed the threshold irreversibly.
Clean Energy Trends says new solar installations overtook wind turbines worldwide last year, where China alone accounted for a third. Wind is still ahead with 2.5 times in old capacity, but it is estimated that solar will surpass wind in total in 2021 as prices on solar panels keep falling.
A recent McKinsey study said the average cost of installing solar panels in the US have dropped almost 50% over the last four years, and will continue to drop an additional 80% by 2020. This will put solar within striking distance of coal and gas.
The technology momentum goes only one way. “Eventually solar will become so large that there will be consequences everywhere,” Parker and Chang sais. This remarkable overthrow of everything we take for granted in world energy politics may occur within “the better part of a decade”.
Even the oil magnates of the Arab world, the Saudis themselves are betting on solar – investing heavily enough to cover 30% of their energy needs by 2030 rather than burning fossil fuel needed for exports.
This is a remarkable twist of history. Just six years ago we faced an oil shock with crude trading and prices spiking. The rise of a motorized China, with an estimated new 400 million people getting behind the wheel for the first time, the demands on oil seemed impossible to meet. Today we can imagine another future of the Chinese car fleet – one where vehicles are electric, charged by solar energy.
Often as a spin-off from electric car ventures, battery storage costs also keeps dropping. Sanford Bernstein says it may not be long before home energy storage is cheap enough to pull households off the grid across the world – personal energy for everyone!
At Sundaya we think the future is looking brighter by the day. We agree with the research – solar is the energy of the future, and personal energy is the mode of travel!
What do you think of the future of energy? Leave you comments below!
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