Economics
of Renewable Energy Plants
When
evaluating renewable power plant or new renewable energy projects
on an economic basis or comparing the economics of different
technologies, the following measures provide insights:
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Capital
costs are
the upfront costs to construct the plant and major maintenance
work that needs to be carried out during the lifetime of the
plant beyond typical operrating expenses.
To
compare different technologies, capital costs are divided by the
peak power (or "name plate power") of the plant to get
the specific
capital cost,
where the peak power is the maximum electric power that the plant
can deliver.
As
the cost for most plant components, especially electric, rises
with the required power, the specific capital cost is useful to
compare the upfront costs of different technologies.
Among
renewable energy sources, solar energy is the most
capital-intensive. However, this is easily exceeded by nuclear
power stations.
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Operating costs cover operations, maintenance and, where appropriate, costs for fuels. Renewable energy plants tend to be very low on operating costs in comparison with fossil fuel generators. |
The
capacity factor of a power station is the ratio of average output
power to peak power that the station could deliver. Due to
fluctuations in the availability of the primary energy source and
outages due to maintenance of the equipment, the capacity factor
is never 100%. In fact, for renewable energy sources, it is
mostly below 50%.
The
capacity factors of solar plants are particularly low. After all,
the sun is only half of the time above the horizon.
Why
is this important?
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The
weighted average cost of capital is measure of how much money the
plant has to pay banks and investors in order to provide them
with their expected return on the assets. The returns are shared
by debt providers (banks) and investors.
This
expected return also reflects the risk associated with the
business, or in this case, technology. According to figures
published by Zelya
Energy,
solar photovoltaics are considered a lower risk than wind or
liquid gas turbines (LNG).
The
wacc is impacted by level of maturity of technology,
predicatbility of the energy yield, fuel supply risk and also
policy risk. The expectation of rising carbon prices could
increase the cost of capital for coal-fired power plants in
future. The risk of solar PV is particularly low because the
forecast of energy yields of solar modules is more accurate than
for other sources.
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The levelised cost of energy (lcoe) is the price (per kWh) for generated electricity that makes the net present value of the installation zero. In other words: If the sales price is lower than the lcoe, the plant does not provide the required return. It is a measure of the cost of ownershipof the plant.
We
are deducting tax credits from costs in this formula, as they are
benefits independent from the sales price level. It is
particularly important to take into account any capital
allowances (investment tax credits), as their availability may be
limited to certain technologies.
In
the absence of availiability of tax credits, and assuming that
the investment is all made in the first year with constant
operating costs and annual energy yield, the formula becomes:
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Sensitivity
of the levelised cost of energy
The
levelised cost of energy is a very sophisticated measure, as it
takes into account the capital costs, operating costs, cost of
capital, capacity factor, generated electricity as well as the
timing of all flows.
On
this basis, renewable energy sources are clearly very
competitive. Nevertheless, the high capital outlay for renewables
is often an obstacle.
We
have calculated the sensitivity of the levelised cost of energy
to variations in a number of parameters of a 1MW solar park.
While varying parameters within a +/-5% range (as shown in
diagram), the LCOE varies within expectation.
The
big unknown, however, is the cost of capital. Changing the wacc
from 7% to 6% in the same calculation, results in a (-9%) - swing
in the level of the cost of energy.
Whilst
the levelised cost of energy is the most comprehensive measure,
it should be read with utter caution, especially when it is used
to compare different technologies.
Nevertheless,
this is the one figure to use when deciding on one project over
another one on pure economic basis.
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Marginal
Cost
The marginal cost of a power plant is the dollar amount that needs to be spent to generate an additional kWh, over and above the fixed costs associated with the initial investment and operation. With no fuel requirements and very little maintenance, the marginal cost of solar parks is virtually zero, whilst fuel and regular maintenance costs drive up marginal costs for other technologies.
When
considering which generators to use in order to meet the
electricity demand, generators with the lowest marginal costs
should have priority, thus contributing to lower overall cost of
providing electricity.
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Monday, January 25, 2016
Economics of Renewable Energy Plants
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